by Ifrane Brennan, AIA
AIACV COTE Member
Since the industrial revolution scientists have recognized a warming trend in our climate. Evidence suggests that it is primarily the result of excess carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Although greenhouse gases are naturally occurring, the recent and sudden increase in our lifetime has been directly connected to human industrial, agricultural, and technological development.. What seems like an imperceptible increase of 1℃ in temperature has drastically impacted weather and climates around the globe. It is estimated that warming beyond 1.5℃ risks triggering irreversible ecological tipping points that will change life on this planet.
A familiar example of one of these tipping points is the melting of polar ice caps and its potential to change ocean currents and weather patterns. This melting is well underway and it is consequential because the polar arctic regions are the engines of the weather systems which we depend on around the globe. At 1.5℃ of warming, all of the ice sheets in Greenland could melt by 2030. This one event has the potential to interfere with ocean currents and change critical weather patterns well beyond Greenland. Even in the best case scenarios scientists predict we will see a rise in sea level. Within arctic territories exposed earth and rock absorbing sunlight will increase warming faster and warm adjacent regions. Where ice sheets had reflected this energy before it will now be trapped and re-radiated locally. Impacts in these parts of the world trigger additional tipping points such as melting permafrost, releasing additional greenhouse gases such as methane into the atmosphere at increasing rates compounding the greenhouse effect and trapping even more heat.
These increased shifts in climate are expected to outpace existing ecosystems’ ability to adapt to the change. Ocean current changes in the arctic impact ocean temperatures in tropical regions affecting coral reef health and tropical storm frequency. As climate rapidly changes animals and plants will not be able to adapt to their new environments. Areas which rely on yearly monsoon seasons could lose their annual supply of water, leading to drought, crop failure and dust storms impacting regions well beyond those directly impacted. Migration will cause ecosystem and human pressure on regions with the remaining resources. Locally, we are seeing drier winters and less rainfall which impacts forest health and deforestation due to beetle-kill and wildfire. The current lumber shortage in the west and beyond has been connected to climate change related deforestation and fires in British Columbia.
Awareness is growing. Climate change is back on the EPA’s website. The United States is back in the Paris Agreement. Our president and administration believe that climate change is real. Countries around the globe are committed to carbon reduction. Renewable energy competes with fossil fuels. Public opinion is shifting. This positive momentum is truly inspiring and yet it is overshadowed by the vast scope of the problem. Just this week scientists have reported that Carbon dioxide levels have reached 419 parts per million, which according to NOAA is the highest it has been in more than four million years. Yet we are still dealing with the ramifications of the previous administration’s disregard for the health of the environment. A lack of political appetite for addressing climate change and a prioritization of private business interests over the health of the natural world and its indigenous populations remains an ever-present and global threat to any progress that can be made to reverse the damage already in motion.
Even if we meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, we may still see a rise in global temperatures up to 3 ℃. This is well beyond 1.5℃ or even the previous target of 2℃. This rise in temperature points to outcomes more drastic than those already predicted. We are looking at events which will be ecologically devastating within many of our lifetimes. We are already seeing climate change related changes in the environment that are directly related to human activities. These outcomes will be a part of daily life for our children and grandchildren. This is a terrible legacy and one that we as citizens of the world have an obligation to address. Right now, the number one concern from a global warming perspective is carbon. We need to stop releasing carbon dioxide and in an ideal scenario begin sequestering carbon that has already been released.
The concept of a ‘total carbon budget’ represents the calculated total amount of carbon to be released by 2100 in order to keep global warming at or below 1.5℃. And the ‘Remaining carbon budget’ is the amount of carbon we can release between now and 2100. Currently the remaining carbon budget is estimated at 340 gigatons of C02. This may seem like and abstract and large number but the reality is that we are not on track to meet this goal.
If we reduce emissions by 66.7% by 2030 and 100% by 2040 it is estimated that we will have a 66.7% chance of remaining under the 1.5℃ threshold. Without these efforts and with a return to business as usual we are likely to exhaust our remaining carbon budget by 2028! This is only seven years away. Well within our lifetime and a legacy we will leave for generations to come.
As architects how can we be a part of reducing carbon emissions?
The first step is to take the time to understand the impact of our projects. To quantify what new buildings mean in terms of carbon. What is our carbon footprint when we build a project? Which common materials and practices need to be re-evaluated? Through energy modeling, life cycle analysis, and carbon benchmarking we can begin to understand our built world through the lens of its carbon footprint. By joining the AIA 2030 Commitment firms can report and document the energy performance of their buildings and track their progress towards carbon neutrality.
Yes, sustainable buildings may not be the status quo. Sustainable design is still seen as extra and more expensive. It is important to recognize that business as usual is still a part of the problem. We are not going to solve the climate crisis by digging deeper into the practices which have caused it. When considering what is at stake and the true cost to our environment, we can begin to see these measures as an investment for future generations. Well designed equitable projects characterize the design excellence and environmental stewardship that inspires a long sustainable life to our built environment.
In the coming articles of this series we will explore how our projects impact the environment, how design excellence includes stewardship of the environment, and how we as architects have all of the tools to shepherd our projects towards outcomes that are equitable, sustainable, and empowering for our clients and our buildings inhabitants.